This year's movie Dragon Boat Festival is tepid. According to the data of Lighthouse Professional Edition, as of 18:40 on June 5, the total box office of the Dragon Boat Festival (including service fees) reached 172 million yuan, with a total of 4.925 million tickets and 1.0625 million screenings. According to the latest statistics, as of June 4, the total number of movie theaters nationwide has reached 9,648, with an operating rate of 79.7%.
The industry generally believes that the current round of the epidemic has been effectively controlled. As the prevention and control situation continues to improve, the recovery of offline theaters will promote the return of squeezed content and drive the film industry to fully restore confidence.
Zhang Rongdi, an industry analyst at the Lighthouse Research Institute, told the "Securities Daily" reporter, "The overall box office revenue of the Dragon Boat Festival this year is slightly lower than that of the May 1st file, but the average single-day box office level is close to that of the May 1st file, both of which are around 60 million yuan. "
Throughout the year, the Dragon Boat Festival is not a key period, but for theaters that are in urgent need of "recovering their vitality", this year's Dragon Boat Festival is more like a "warm-up", testing the market with small and medium-sized films to restore confidence to the filmmakers. , so as to save energy for the next market recovery and prosperity.
Beacon data shows that the top three films in the schedule box office are: "Secret Love: Orange Born in Huainan", "Bad League", "Doraemon: Nobita's Little Cosmic War 2021", and the box office of these three films is 45.668 million yuan respectively during the schedule. , 40.405 million yuan, 24.009 million yuan.
In terms of attendance, the average number of people per game for the above three films were: 5, 8, and 5. In other words, the best-performing "Secret Love: Orange Born in Huainan" only had an average of 5 viewers per screening.
"The film shortage is still severe. The top three box office release dates are June 2, April 29, and May 28, and the Spring Festival movies are still being released. For theaters and audiences, the optional content There are too few, only 7 new films have been released since June 1st, most of them are of the zero-announcement category, and there are not many interesting ones." A theater manager told reporters that he was looking forward to the release in mid-to-late June. The new film can turn things around.
"Jurassic World 3" has been set for June 10, or will start the first shot of the summer blockbuster. At present, 324,400 people have expressed "want to watch" the film on the lighthouse platform. A brokerage analyst who focuses on the TMT industry told the "Securities Daily" reporter that the projection side has stabilized, but some filmmakers still take a wait-and-see attitude and dare not easily test the water with heavy content. At this time, the imported film "Jurassic World 3" "The release, if it can trigger a movie viewing craze, it will definitely increase the confidence of the film party to set the file.
GF Securities Research Report stated that the current content side of the film market shows "a larger head, a longer tail and a missing waist". During the epidemic, the film's box office concentration increased. This is because the repeated epidemics caused the "social value" of the film to be greatly reduced. The audience was more cautious in choosing the content to watch. Consumer demand for high-quality movie content has not diminished due to the epidemic.
The research report believes that with the continuous improvement of the national epidemic situation, it is expected that theaters in various places will gradually resume normal operations after June. "We expect to achieve a box office of 41.5 billion yuan excluding service fees in 2022, which will recover to 70% of 2019. In 2023, the national box office is expected to increase by 62% year-on-year to 67.3 billion yuan.”
In terms of box office distribution, Beacon data shows that the cities with better box office performance in the Dragon Boat Festival this year are Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Chengdu and Chongqing, and Chengdu and Xi'an also have good box office performance.
"This year, the Dragon Boat Festival has been greatly affected by the epidemic. Shanghai cinemas are still closed. The number of operating theaters in Beijing is less than 100, and the operating rate is close to 40%." Zhang Rongdi further said.
In the opinion of the above-mentioned analysts, the recovery performance of the sinking market of the film industry is also better than that of first- and second-tier cities. Taking the Dragon Boat Festival as an example, the box office revenue of third- and fourth-tier cities was 75.09 million yuan, which has recovered to about 40% of the same period last year. "On the one hand, most cinemas in cities below the third tier are open as usual; on the other hand, during the epidemic, cross-city and cross-province travel has decreased, and the demand for local entertainment has increased; in addition, the penetration rate of cinemas in cities below the third tier is low, and users' demand for movie viewing has increased. There is a lot of room for marginal improvement.”
Overall, my country’s second-tier to fifth-tier cities still have a lot of room for movie viewing needs to be explored. GF Securities Research Report stated that in 2019, the per capita movie viewing times in my country’s first-tier to fifth-tier cities were about 3.36 times, 2.08 times, 0.87 times, 0.62 times, and 0.47 times, compared to about 3.76 times per capita in the United States in 2019.
"In the past, disruptors in the Internet industry used low prices to attract movie users. Judging from the situation in recent years, the era of low-cost ticket supplements has passed, and the quality of the movie will determine whether the audience will enter the theater in the future. ” Shi Yedong, CEO of Yuedong Culture, told a reporter from Securities Daily.
The industry generally believes that the current round of the epidemic has been effectively controlled. As the prevention and control situation continues to improve, the recovery of offline theaters will promote the return of squeezed content and drive the film industry to fully restore confidence.
Zhang Rongdi, an industry analyst at the Lighthouse Research Institute, told the "Securities Daily" reporter, "The overall box office revenue of the Dragon Boat Festival this year is slightly lower than that of the May 1st file, but the average single-day box office level is close to that of the May 1st file, both of which are around 60 million yuan. "
Throughout the year, the Dragon Boat Festival is not a key period, but for theaters that are in urgent need of "recovering their vitality", this year's Dragon Boat Festival is more like a "warm-up", testing the market with small and medium-sized films to restore confidence to the filmmakers. , so as to save energy for the next market recovery and prosperity.
Beacon data shows that the top three films in the schedule box office are: "Secret Love: Orange Born in Huainan", "Bad League", "Doraemon: Nobita's Little Cosmic War 2021", and the box office of these three films is 45.668 million yuan respectively during the schedule. , 40.405 million yuan, 24.009 million yuan.
In terms of attendance, the average number of people per game for the above three films were: 5, 8, and 5. In other words, the best-performing "Secret Love: Orange Born in Huainan" only had an average of 5 viewers per screening.
"The film shortage is still severe. The top three box office release dates are June 2, April 29, and May 28, and the Spring Festival movies are still being released. For theaters and audiences, the optional content There are too few, only 7 new films have been released since June 1st, most of them are of the zero-announcement category, and there are not many interesting ones." A theater manager told reporters that he was looking forward to the release in mid-to-late June. The new film can turn things around.
"Jurassic World 3" has been set for June 10, or will start the first shot of the summer blockbuster. At present, 324,400 people have expressed "want to watch" the film on the lighthouse platform. A brokerage analyst who focuses on the TMT industry told the "Securities Daily" reporter that the projection side has stabilized, but some filmmakers still take a wait-and-see attitude and dare not easily test the water with heavy content. At this time, the imported film "Jurassic World 3" "The release, if it can trigger a movie viewing craze, it will definitely increase the confidence of the film party to set the file.
GF Securities Research Report stated that the current content side of the film market shows "a larger head, a longer tail and a missing waist". During the epidemic, the film's box office concentration increased. This is because the repeated epidemics caused the "social value" of the film to be greatly reduced. The audience was more cautious in choosing the content to watch. Consumer demand for high-quality movie content has not diminished due to the epidemic.
The research report believes that with the continuous improvement of the national epidemic situation, it is expected that theaters in various places will gradually resume normal operations after June. "We expect to achieve a box office of 41.5 billion yuan excluding service fees in 2022, which will recover to 70% of 2019. In 2023, the national box office is expected to increase by 62% year-on-year to 67.3 billion yuan.”
In terms of box office distribution, Beacon data shows that the cities with better box office performance in the Dragon Boat Festival this year are Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Chengdu and Chongqing, and Chengdu and Xi'an also have good box office performance.
"This year, the Dragon Boat Festival has been greatly affected by the epidemic. Shanghai cinemas are still closed. The number of operating theaters in Beijing is less than 100, and the operating rate is close to 40%." Zhang Rongdi further said.
In the opinion of the above-mentioned analysts, the recovery performance of the sinking market of the film industry is also better than that of first- and second-tier cities. Taking the Dragon Boat Festival as an example, the box office revenue of third- and fourth-tier cities was 75.09 million yuan, which has recovered to about 40% of the same period last year. "On the one hand, most cinemas in cities below the third tier are open as usual; on the other hand, during the epidemic, cross-city and cross-province travel has decreased, and the demand for local entertainment has increased; in addition, the penetration rate of cinemas in cities below the third tier is low, and users' demand for movie viewing has increased. There is a lot of room for marginal improvement.”
Overall, my country’s second-tier to fifth-tier cities still have a lot of room for movie viewing needs to be explored. GF Securities Research Report stated that in 2019, the per capita movie viewing times in my country’s first-tier to fifth-tier cities were about 3.36 times, 2.08 times, 0.87 times, 0.62 times, and 0.47 times, compared to about 3.76 times per capita in the United States in 2019.
"In the past, disruptors in the Internet industry used low prices to attract movie users. Judging from the situation in recent years, the era of low-cost ticket supplements has passed, and the quality of the movie will determine whether the audience will enter the theater in the future. ” Shi Yedong, CEO of Yuedong Culture, told a reporter from Securities Daily.
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