The North American film market ushered in the first weekend of 2023. Since no new films were released, the so-called "good start" scene did not appear. The total box office of the weekend was around 100 million US dollars, mainly relying on the pull of "Avatar: The Way of Water". Going back to the first weekend of 2020, the total box office in North America was about 200 million U.S. dollars, double what it is today. If you want to return to the normal state before the epidemic, whether it is filmmakers or theater staff, there is still a lot of work to do in this brand new year.

"Avatar: Way of Water"

"Avatar: Way of Water" box office has further time and space to rise

"Avatar: Way of Water" took in a weekend box office of $63.44 million in its third weekend of release. Compared with the previous weekend, not only did it not drop, but there was a slight increase, which fully demonstrated the festival's pulling effect on the box office and the strong stamina of this visual effects blockbuster.

At present, the North American box office of "Avatar: Way of Water" has reached 440 million US dollars, and the global box office is approaching 1.4 billion US dollars. Although director James Cameron once said that the box office of "Avatar: Way of Water" must reach the third or fourth highest in film history, that is, 2 billion US dollars, in order to ensure that it will not lose money. However, a few days ago, "Variety Show" reported that according to industry insiders, the break-even box office value of the film was actually around US$1.4 billion. In other words, it has passed the safety line at present, and there is no danger of returning to the capital.

Outside of North America, the overseas box office of "Avatar: Way of Water" reached 956 million US dollars. Among them, mainland China is still the largest ticket warehouse. Also relying on the pulling effect of festivals on consumption and the crowds of people who have recovered from the new crown, as of press time, the film's mainland box office has exceeded 1.1 billion yuan. However, due to the early arrival of the Lunar New Year this year, this past weekend "The Wandering Earth 2" and other Chinese New Year films have been announced to be finalized, and the time left for "Avatar: The Way of Water" is already very limited. Compared with North America, the next big production released in theaters is "Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania" (Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania) on February 17, and there is still enough time and space for its box office keep climbing.

The second place on the weekend box office list is still the animated film "Puss in Boots 2" produced by Universal Pictures. The film grossed $16.3 million in three days over the weekend, which may not be satisfactory in itself. But comparing similar works of the same period in the past, the gap is quite obvious. In 2016, the ticket price of movies in American theaters was much lower than today, but like "Puss in Boots 2", "The Voice of Joy", which was released on December 21 years ago, is the first after the new year. On the weekend, it can still get a box office of 42 million US dollars in the three days of the weekend, and the comparison is quite obvious.

"Puss in Boots 2"

The gap of several times must mean that the production level of "The Voice of Joy" is much higher than that of "Puss in Boots 2"? Judging from media reputation and audience ratings alone, this may not necessarily be the case. After seven years, why did American audiences lose their enthusiasm for going to the theater to watch movies? The exact answer is probably only God knows. Of course, the most obvious reason is probably the lack of new movie supply. This weekend, "Black Panther 2", which has been released for a month and a half, has climbed to the third place on the weekend box office list, but the three-day box office is only 4.8 million US dollars. Before the epidemic, it was impossible to enter Top ten at the weekend box office, let alone top three.

In contrast, Whitney Houston's biopic "Dancing with Love" released years ago and "Babylon", a tribute to the golden age of Hollywood, have completely beaten the box office this weekend. After all, they did not shoot enough. It is excellent, or the audience has completely lost interest in such works, or the schedule is wrong. There are different opinions on the specific reasons. What is certain is that a vicious cycle may have already appeared: audiences don’t like to watch such new films, so film companies become more cautious when they release them, and they dare not arrange full releases easily, so new films are getting fewer and fewer, and audiences are also more cautious. The more unwilling to pay for tickets.

There are still hidden worries in the full recovery of theaters in 2023

For the whole year of 2022, the North American box office will be about 7.4 billion U.S. dollars. Compared with 2021's 4.3 billion U.S. dollars, there is a 72% increase, but compared with 2019's 11.3 billion U.S. dollars, there is still a big gap. Moreover, returning to the beginning of 2022, many industry experts are full of confidence, and believe that this year's North American box office will definitely return to the level before the epidemic on the basis of 2021.

Looking back now, such predictions can only be said to be silly and naive. No need to list other data, just look at the stock price of AMC, the largest movie theater chain in North America, which has plummeted from $26 a share at the beginning of 2022 to $4 a share today, and you can know the American film industry in 2022 What exactly went through.

The most direct reason for the poor box office is naturally the lack of audiences, especially adult audiences. When looking closely at the reasons for the lack of audience, the first thing that bears the brunt is the lack of high-quality new films. From August to mid-October in 2022, for more than two months, there are no blockbuster movies worth watching. Many works that were supposed to be released were delayed in post-production and publicity due to the previous epidemic. Work, such as "Spider-Man: Parallel Universe 2", "Aquaman 2", "Mission: Impossible 7" and "The Flash", which are scheduled to be released in 2023, were originally planned to be released in 2022. So, I'm afraid it's really the fault of the epidemic.

"Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse 2"

In 2022, there will be 18 works with a box office of over 100 million US dollars in North America, which is better than the 13 works in 2021, but far less than the 29 works in 2019. Now, with the full-year release schedule for 2023, box office analysts believe that 33 films are expected to have a box office of over 100 million. If so, it seems that the North American film market in 2023 is indeed expected to return to the level of 2019. But looking at the number of films planned to be released in 2023, the situation may not be so optimistic.

In 2022, the total number of films released in the North American market will be less than 450, far lower than the 792 films in 2019. At present, it seems that the total number of films planned to be released in North American theaters in 2023 will definitely be much more than 450. But the problem is that this number includes all released films, and what really determines the box office market is actually the so-called wide release works that will be screened in more than 600 theaters at the same time. In 2022, there will be a total of 104 such films. In 2023, there are only 100 such films in the current film schedule, and there is no significant change in the number. In 2019 before the epidemic, there were 143 such films. It is precisely because of the existence of these 143 films that there will be an annual North American box office of US$11.3 billion. Therefore, some people in the industry have already predicted that the North American film market in 2023 will still not be able to restore its former glory. The so-called return to the right track may have to wait until 2024!

Disney, Universal, and Paramount are the top three in the money-absorbing list

Analyzing the major companies in detail, Disney ranked first with US$1.93 billion, accounting for 26% of all North American annual box office. The top Disney works at the box office, including "Doctor Strange 2", "Thor 4", "Black Panther 2", "Avatar: Way of Water", etc., are still quite strong. But the box office of their two animated films "Buzz Lightyear" and "Odd World" produced this year was not satisfactory. Animated films are logically said to be Disney's starting point, which is of great significance to the sustainable development of this dream factory.

Ranked second is Universal Pictures, whose annual box office of US$1.64 billion accounted for 22% of the total North American annual box office, mainly from films such as "Jurassic World 3" and "Minions with Big Eyes: Despicable Me". It is worth mentioning that a total of 33 Universal Pictures works will be on the big screen in 2022, ranking first in terms of number.

Paramount Pictures came in third with $1.29 billion, accounting for 17 percent of the market. For this veteran Hollywood film company, the last time the total North American box office exceeded one billion U.S. dollars was already in 2014. It can be seen that for Paramount Pictures in 2022, the results are actually quite good. It's Top Gun 2, the box office king of 2022. In addition, works such as "The Lost City", "Sonic the Hedgehog 2" and "Dangerous Smile" have also received more than 100 million US dollars at the box office.

Top Gun 2

Especially the horror film "Dangerous Smile", the original plan was to go directly to the distribution mode of the streaming media Paramount+, but because of the excellent response from the test screening, Brian Robbins, the head of Paramount, personally ordered to change the course temporarily. In the end, it did achieve miraculous results, and it fully reflects that under the new normal of online and offline coexistence, how to balance and adapt to changes is definitely the key to the success of a Hollywood film company. Throughout 2022, Paramount will release a total of 14 works in theaters, which will increase to 23 next year. "Mission: Impossible 7" and the new "Transformers" and "Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles" are all worth looking forward to.

Behind these three is Warner Bros. Pictures, which will only get a box office of 936 million U.S. dollars in 2022, failing to reach the billion-dollar mark. Throughout the year, the box office results of "New Batman", "Fantastic Beasts: The Mystery of Dumbledore", "Elvis Presley", "Black Adam" and other films are remarkable, but overall, for the experienced For the reorganized and merged Warner, 2022 is a year of transformation, and various pains are inevitable. Next, let us wait and see how the DC movie universe will develop under the coordination of the new brain James Gunn.

In 2022, Sony Pictures' annual North American box office will be 844 million U.S. dollars. It is the only film company among the major Hollywood labels that will not rise but fall compared with 2021. The main reason is naturally that "Spider-Man: Homeless" did not appear last year. A box-office masterpiece like "Returnable". However, Sony Pictures' "Bullet Train" and "Girl in the Deep Swamp" and other films have achieved good box office. Tony Venciguera, the head of Sony Pictures, who has been in office for almost six years, has always opposed Sony's motion to build its own streaming media platform. I am afraid only time will tell whether it is wise to do so.

In addition to the traditional five major Hollywood companies mentioned above, the independent film company A24 will have a total North American box office of 110 million U.S. dollars in 2022 with the astonishing box office of "The Instant Universe", setting the best record since the company was established ten years ago. MGM, an established film company acquired by Amazon, earned a total box office of US$102 million in North America last year, a 68% decline compared to 2021 when "007: No Time to Die" was released. Lionsgate's total box office in North America in 2022 will be US$80.3 million, which is a 20% decline compared to 2021.

The one-off streaming model may change

2022 is also the year when the streaming bubble gradually bursts. The dividends brought by the stay-at-home economy in the epidemic era have disappeared as the epidemic eases. More and more observers have noticed that the number of streaming media subscribers can no longer continue to grow as in the past, and the entire market may have reached saturation. .

In April 2022, Netflix announced that the number of global subscribers in the last quarter did not increase but decreased for the first time in history, which is the best proof. Since then, the number of its subscribers has grown benignly again, but near the end of the year, Netflix and Disney+ successively launched low-price advertising version subscriber promotion plans. As a result, the number of subscribers increased was not as much as expected. , The number of new users that can be attracted is also extremely limited.

In this context, it is currently conceivable that in the streaming media war in 2023, the degree of money burning will definitely be further reduced than in 2022. In order to ensure its competitiveness, Netflix must continue to invest money in creation, but for those traditional Hollywood companies, it may not be cost-effective to continue to invest heavily in this area regardless of cost.

In addition, a very obvious new trend of streaming media users will appear in 2022: discard after watching. A large number of users will join for a short period of time when a program they are interested in appears on a certain streaming media platform, and unsubscribe immediately after watching it, and then watch it on another one. On the one hand, this is because there are too many streaming media platforms to choose from at present, and all kinds of programs are blooming. I am afraid that one person will not be able to watch them all in decades without sleep.

On the other hand, global inflation will be serious in 2022, and everyone has adopted the attitude of saving while saving. As in the past, there are fewer and fewer rich families who have subscribed to multiple streaming media. Therefore, in 2023, how to improve the stickiness of one's own brand and reduce the phenomenon of users running away after watching it is bound to become a way for various streaming media platforms to think about.

In this regard, some industry insiders have predicted that the binge method pioneered by Netflix to release a whole season of programs at one go may cause various streaming media platforms to readjust in the future, updating one episode every week or one episode every day. Maybe it can also force users to stay on their own platform for a longer period of time.