This past weekend, there were multiple award-giving events in Hollywood. The Independent Spirit Award, the University of California Screenplay Award, the Sound Effects Union Award, the Editors Union Award, the Screenwriters Union Award and the Photographers Union Award have been released one after another, giving this year's Oscar finale more predictable indicators. The Oscar voting process, which started on March 2, will end on March 7 local time in the United States. In the next five days, all the films and filmmakers aiming to "go to the Olympics" can only wait patiently. The answer to the mystery will be revealed on March 12, and the awards season will come to an end.

It is 99% a foregone conclusion that "The Transient Universe" will win the Best Picture Award

Of the six award-giving events held last weekend, the most topical one must be the Independent Spirit Awards announced on Saturday, although it is more focused on independent films and literary works than the Oscars-only the production cost is less than 30 million US dollars Works are only eligible to participate - the composition of the judges is also very different from that of the Oscar judges, but due to the trend of Oscar itself becoming more and more biased towards niche films in recent years, in the past 12 years, there have been as many as It has coincided with Oscar's best picture seven times, which is not a small indicator. In the end, "Blinking Universe" beat out films such as "Tal" and "Women Talk" at this year's Independent Spirit Awards, continuing to lead the awards season.

At the Screenwriters Guild Awards held last Sunday night, it was "The Transient Universe" that won the Best Original Screenplay Award again. So far, the film has won the highest awards from the four major Hollywood film unions (Actors Union, Directors Union, Producers Union, and Screenwriters Union). In terms of sex, then the members of the above four trade unions highly overlap with the Oscar judges. Historically, there were four other films that achieved this grand slam achievement before "The Universal Universe", namely "American Beauty", "No Country for Old Men", "Slumdog Millionaire" and "Escape from Tehran". In the end, all four films won the highest Oscar awards. Therefore, we have enough reason to believe that it is 99% a foregone conclusion that "The Transient Universe" won the Oscar for Best Picture on March 12.

"Momentary Universe"

The reason why it is said to be 99% instead of 100% is because there is still a "All Quiet on the Western Front" this year, which adds a little bit of uncertainty to the battle situation that should have been completely clear. "All Quiet on the Western Front" is also the best picture candidate for this year's Oscars, but because it is produced in Germany, it is not eligible to participate in the final selection of various American Film Guild Awards. "The Instantaneous Universe" has no confrontation at all.

However, at the British Academy Film Awards, where the two had a "frontal conflict", "All Quiet on the Western Front" won a big victory, and "The Transient Universe" could only win one award for best editing. From this point of view, at least in the minds of British filmmakers, "All Quiet on the Western Front" is far better than "The Transient Universe".

So, does the British Academy of Film Awards have any indicator significance in predicting the Oscars? the answer is negative. On both sides of the UK and the Oscars, there may be at most five or six hundred judges who overlap with each other, which is almost negligible in the current melting pot of nearly ten thousand Oscar judges. Moreover, in the past eight years, the best picture of the British Academy Film Awards has almost failed to win the Oscar for best picture in the end. In this regard alone, "The Transient Universe" does not need to worry about the film from "The West Front". War challenge.

"All Quiet on the Western Front"

Actor awards are confusing

In addition to the best picture award, the Oscar's four acting awards have always been the focus of attention from the outside world. Compared with the 99% possibility of "The Instantaneous Universe" winning the best picture award, the result of the actor award is not so clear at present.

Relatively speaking, Guan Jiwei, who was shortlisted for Best Supporting Actor with "The Transient Universe", has the greatest hope of winning the award. As for the leading actor, there is a three-nation situation: Brendan Fraser in "Whale" has the Critics' Choice Award and the Screen Actors Guild Award; Austin Butler in "Elvis Presley" has the Golden Globe Award and the British With the Academy Award for Film, and Colin Farrell, who won the Venice Film Festival with "The Banshee of Inisherin", the troika is not to say that they are neck and neck, but at least they are full of suspense. Of course, Fisher, who is reborn from the ashes, has a better chance of winning. After all, the Oscar judges have always appreciated this kind of inspirational story of salty fish turning over and making a comeback. This year, Guan Jiwei and Fisher both carry this kind of positive energy spirit. In addition, Fisher also sacrificed his appearance for the role, which added another bargaining chip.

As for the heroine, the first heroine in history who won the British Academy Film Award but missed the Oscar was Emmanuelle Riva, who starred in "Love" in 2012. In contrast, it is slightly more common to win the Screen Actors Guild Award but fail to win the Oscar. Based on this calculation, Cate Blanchett, who won the BAFTA this year, seems to have a better chance of winning than Michelle Yeoh, who won the Screen Actors Guild Award. Moreover, under the premise that "The Transient Universe" is expected to win the Best Picture Award, Director Award, Original Screenplay Award and Best Supporting Actor Award, the Oscar jury will no longer leave the Actress Award to this Asian film. It is really thought-provoking.

On March 4, 2023 local time, in Santa Monica, California, USA, Michelle Yeoh and Cate Blanchett attended the 38th American Film Independent Spirit Awards Ceremony. Visual China Map

In recent years, Hollywood has actively advocated diversity and has fully embraced overseas works, especially Asian filmmakers. As a result, "Parasite" won four Oscars and "Drive My Car" received four Oscar nominations. This year, "The Instantaneous Universe" has been nominated for ten Oscars, which has already made history. In contrast, it also highlights the loneliness of African-American filmmakers at this year's Oscars.

Angela Bassett, who starred in "Black Panther 2", needs to face the challenge of two Asian actors in the Best Supporting Actress category--Xu Weilun from "The Instant Universe" and Zhou Hong from "Whale". However, Bessett was originally quite optimistic. After all, she is the only black actor to be nominated for an Oscar this year, and she has worked hard in Hollywood for many years, so the representative and symbolic significance is very obvious. However, the American Screen Actors Guild Awards unexpectedly awarded the Best Supporting Actress award to Jamie Lee Curtis of "The Transient Universe", which immediately diluted Bessett's hopes of winning.

Angela Bassett Nominated for Best Supporting Actress Oscar for 'Black Panther 2'

In the past thirteen years, all the Best Supporting Actresses who have won the Screen Actors Guild Awards have basically won the Oscar. But judging from this result, it is obvious that the American actor group still has a lot of prejudices against comic-book movies like "Black Panther 2". In this kind of popcorn work, actors have never really had room to display their acting skills. Bessett's ability to get this nomination with "Black Panther 2" may be the upper limit of Marvel movies.

Diversification has a long way to go

If Bessett really misses the award in the end, I am afraid that it can be foreseen that the keyword "Oscar too white" will quickly become popular on American social media after the awards ceremony.

Among all the nominees this year, apart from Bessett and Brian Tyree Henry, who was nominated for Best Supporting Actor for "Beyond the Bridge", only the makeup team of "Black Panther 2" is left. Mill Freund, Ruth E. Carter from the Costume Team, Christopher White from the Visual Effects Team, and Rihanna and Tems from the Episode Team. If African-Americans can only appear as award presenters at this year's Oscars, it will definitely attract a lot of criticism.

In contrast, Asian filmmakers can be said to be in full bloom this year. In addition to "Transient Universe" and "Whale", the animated film "Metamorphosis", the feature film "Desire to Live", the documentary "Living Together", the feature film "RRR", the short film "Red Suitcase" and " Baby Elephant Guardian also has different degrees of Asian elements.

In all fairness, such a result can only show that there are fundamental problems in the Hollywood film industry system. There is really a long way from the diversification goal they are pursuing today, and it will not be changed overnight. Take this year's Oscar for Best Sound Effects Award as an example, because most of the five shortlisted films were nominated by the team, a total of 24 people were nominated, but if you check their resumes carefully, you will find that all 24 people are all Are white, and almost all male. Due to various historical and realistic reasons, blacks and women simply have no chance to join the behind-the-scenes fields of movies such as sound effects, special effects, and sound mixing. Fundamentally speaking, disadvantaged groups are excluded from the Hollywood industrial system. In this context, if the Oscars are to diversify quickly, it is tantamount to cooking without rice, which is not easy. Therefore, leaning towards overseas films like "Parasite" has become a shortcut to quickly achieve the goal of diversification.

"Elvis Presley" director of photography Mandy Walker made history at the American Photographers Guild Awards, which were announced on Sunday night, becoming the first woman to win in the award's 38-year history. In the 38-year history, only three women have been nominated for the Photography Guild Award; and in the nearly 100-year history of Oscar, only three women, including Mandy Walker, have been nominated for best photography, but Both the first two missed the statuette. In the process of winning this year's Photographic Guild Award, she defeated four cinematographers of "Empire of Light", "The Poet", "Top Gun: The Lone Ranger" and "New Batman". At the Oscars later, she will face the photographers of "Empire of Light", "The Poet", "Tar" and "All Quiet on the Western Front", and she is expected to create a new record.

"Elvis" cinematographer Mandy Walker is poised to become the first woman to win an Oscar for Best Cinematography.

In the past ten years, the winner of the Photographic Guild of America Award has coincided with the Oscar Award seven times. Last Sunday, Mandy Walker said excitedly when she took the stage to accept the award, "I want to dedicate this award to all future women who will also hold it, and to all future female colleagues who will break other glass ceilings."