The long holiday season is here, and on the penultimate weekend of 2023, the North American film market ushered in the full release of the final chapter of the DC Extended Universe, "Aquaman 2: The Lost Kingdom." In addition, the debut of new films of various genres such as "The Flying Duck", "I Just Want to Love You" and "Iron Claw" also allow the audience to get what they want.

"Aquaman 2" marks the end of an era

"Aquaman 2" was released in 3,706 theaters and ultimately earned $28.1 million at the weekend box office. Although this result successfully ranked first in the weekend box office, it was still about US$10 million less than the industry's expectations, and also lagged behind the US$4,610 opening of its competitor, Marvel Studios' previously released "Captain Marvel 2" box office. Not to mention comparing the opening box office of the first "Aquaman" released at the end of 2018 with US$67.9 million, which is more than double that of the current film. In terms of global box office, "Aquaman 2" has currently earned US$120 million, and the mainland Chinese market, which was released two days in advance, has earned a total of 221 million yuan.

At the beginning, "Aquaman" achieved a total box office of US$335 million in North America, and the global box office exceeded US$1 billion, of which the box office in mainland China reached an astonishing 2 billion yuan, making it the best box office work in the DC Universe in the past. Back in December 2018, it was the most glorious time for superhero movies. It was the year of "Black Panther", "Avengers: Infinity War", "Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse" and "Aquaman".

Now, only five years have passed, and it seems like two eras have passed. This time, if nothing else, even the premiere of "Aquaman 2" in the United States was extremely streamlined, even sloppy. Only the lead actor Jason Momoa and director James Wan attended the main creative team, which was the same as five years ago when Jason Momoa took the stage with his wife and children, and the two leading actors Nicole Kidman and Amber Heard The murder of countless media flashbulbs is a world of difference.

"Aquaman 2" poster

It is not surprising at all that there is such a sharp contrast between before and after. On the one hand, the reviews of the film itself are not ideal. The freshness rating on the film review website "Rotten Tomatoes" is only 36%, and the audience score is only B-grade, which is lower than the A-grade of the first film and DC's 6 this year. "The Flash," released in March, scored the same score.

On the other hand, it is known that the new head of the DC film department, James Gunn, is already preparing a new work "Superman: Legacy" (Superman: Legacy), which brings the original DC extended universe to an end. Even Jason · Moyadu admitted that the possibility of him continuing to play the role of Aquaman in the future is quite slim.

In 2023, this is already the fourth work in the DC Universe that failed to meet expectations at the box office. The previous "The Flash", "Shazam: Wrath of the Gods" and "Blue Beetle" also had unsatisfactory commercial results. Looking back at the creation of the DC movie universe, it originally came from director Christopher Nolan and Jeff Robinov, then the head of Warner Bros.'s film production department. The latter not only gave Nolan three roles in directing "The Dark Knight" It also has a grand plan to create multiple DC comic movies. Since then, Nolan invited Zack Snyder to direct "Man of Steel" and he served as executive producer. As a result, there may be a big gap between the two people's creative concepts. Nolan eventually left the DC Universe, while Zack Snyder received the support of Robinoff and became the main force of the DC Universe.

In 2013, Robinoff left Warner and founded Studio 8, which produced Ang Lee's "Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk" and other films. The responsibility of steering the DC Universe falls on his replacement, Greg Silverman. In 2014, newly appointed Warner Bros. CEO Kevin Tsujihara announced ten ambitious new film plans for the DC Cinematic Universe, including "Wonder Woman", "The Flash", "Aquaman", "Steel" "Bone", "Green Lantern", "Suicide Squad", "Shazam!" " and two "Justice League" movies, hoping that the DC Cinematic Universe can replicate Marvel's success.

"Wonder Woman" was indeed a hit, but the sequel was criticized and encountered big troubles due to the epidemic. The third part was even canceled after the project was announced. As for "Aquaman", although it is still the third highest-grossing movie in Warner's history, second only to "Barbie" and "Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows (Part 2)", the second one released now is also It became the end of a stage.

"Barbie" poster

Some people believe that if Tsujihara had not stepped down due to a sex scandal in 2019, the fate of the DC movie universe might have been different. Some people also pointed out that the failure of the DC movie universe was due to the continued turmoil of the parent company Warner Bros.: first it was acquired by AT&T in 2016, and then merged with the Discovery Group in 2022. Marvel's top executive Kevin Feige once said that the key to Marvel's success lies in its acquisition by Disney, which gives Marvel more resources and more stability. So someone asked, if Marvel is like the DC Universe, changing bosses or speakers back and forth, will it still be successful later?

Stability is paramount. We can only hope that Gunn and Peter Safran, the two new leaders of the DC Universe, can achieve a more stable internal and external environment. I believe that by the time "Superman: Legend" is released on July 11, 2025, it will be There are answers.

"Flying Duck Goes Forward" gets off to a good start

For Warner, which is in urgent need of stabilization, fortunately, in addition to the DC Universe, they also have other popular products, such as "Wonka", which ranked second at the weekend box office. The film continued to attract many viewers during its second weekend after its release. Driven by word-of-mouth, it is expected to become the first choice for family viewing in North America during this holiday season. At present, its cumulative box office in North America has reached 83.56 million U.S. dollars, and its global box office has exceeded 250 million U.S. dollars.

Ranking third is the animated film "The Flying Ducks" produced by Universal Pictures. The film was released in 3,761 theaters and earned an opening box office of US$12.31 million. "Flying Ducks" is Illumination Entertainment's first original theme work since "The Voice" in 2016. It is created by the French branch of Illumination Entertainment. The director has participated in "Att Bear and Senna Rat" and "Big Bad Fox". The Story of Benjamin Rene.

"The Flying Duck Rushes Forward" poster

In the past six or seven years, Universal has continuously launched some sequels and super IP movies such as "Super Mario Bros. Movie" and original works such as "Duck Rush". On the one hand, in the entire film market It seems rare, but on the other hand, it is difficult to succeed. In fact, several original works launched by Hollywood animation studios this year were not very popular with the audience, including DreamWorks' "The Girl Who Came In", Disney's "Star Wish", and Pixar's "Elemental City" which also lagged behind. Cheng exerted his strength.

"The Flying Duck" was first released in the Chinese mainland market as early as December 8, and the current cumulative box office is only 12.87 million yuan. However, the box office performance of "The Flying Ducks" in North America shows that local audiences appreciate it quite a lot, and this once again verifies the new rule told to us by the entire North American film market in 2023: formulaic works with unique tricks have been Abandoned by the audience, what the market needs is innovative, high-quality original works.

Ranking fourth over the weekend was the romantic comedy "Anyone But You" produced by Sony Pictures. The film stars Sydney Sweeney, who is famous for the TV series "Euphoria". It opened with a box office of US$6.46 million in 3,055 theaters over the weekend, which is not ideal. Fortunately, its production cost was only US$25 million. , cost recovery should not be a big problem.

Another new film that was released on a large scale over the weekend was the sports-themed film "The Iron Claw" from A24 Pictures. The film only opened with a box office of US$5.06 million in 2,774 theaters, but for an independent film with a production cost of only US$16 million and a relatively niche subject matter, this result is still acceptable.

Overall, the total box office in North America this weekend is almost 95 million US dollars, which may be OK in normal times, but you must know that this period has always been the peak season for the North American film market. Before the epidemic era, it was easily It can exceed 100 million US dollars, and sometimes it can exceed 200 million US dollars. Comparing the current decline can only make people sigh with emotion.

The box office outlook for 2024 is not optimistic

At the beginning of this year, industry forecasts for North American annual box office totals fell on the $9 billion target. Relying on the "Barbenheimer" craze in the summer, everyone was optimistic that reaching this number should not be a problem. However, two major labor unions later encountered a strike crisis, which directly caused the film market to turn from prosperity to decline.

According to data released by the US box office statistics agency Comscore, as of December 17, the North American box office reached US$8.58 billion, which is US$416 million short of US$9 billion. Now, coupled with the more than 100 million US dollars gained in the past seven days, I am afraid there is still a gap of 200 million US dollars, which needs to be made up in the last five or six days. Although several new films such as "The Color Purple" and "Ringing Boy" will be released this week, the US$9 billion goal may not be reached in the end.

Of course, no matter how much the box office ultimately reaches in 2023, this is already the best result since the outbreak, far exceeding the US$7.46 billion in 2022 and the US$4.56 billion in 2021, but it is still far from the US$10 billion before the epidemic. The annual North American box office performance of hovering at $11 billion is still some way off. The main reason is probably the lack of new films, because there will be only 88 new films released in North America in 2023, but in 2019, when the box office reached 10.5 billion US dollars, there were 108, a full 20 films less.

Just last week, Gower Street Analytics, a box office research company from the UK, gave a forecast report for the global box office in 2024. According to it, the total global movie box office value in 2023 will be approximately US$33.4 billion, but it may not rise but fall in 2024, falling by 5% to US$31.5 billion. Compared with the average value from 2017 to 2019 before the epidemic, It is even 20% lower.

The main reason for giving such a pessimistic prediction is that the double strike of the Writers Guild of America and the Screen Actors Guild this year is too influential. The company's CEO Dimitrios Mitsinikos said, "Given that we have lost 50% of production time in 2023, this 5% decline is a direct consequence of the possible limited supply of new films. , rather than due to lack of audience interest. In fact, the 2023 summer summer box office boom driven by "Barbie" and "Oppenheimer" has proven that audiences actually have a very strong demand for truly good movies."

"Oppenheimer" poster

Undoubtedly, the North American market is most affected by the strike. According to the company's forecast, the North American box office in 2024 will drop 11% from 2023 and 30% from the average level from 2017 to 2019, and is estimated to be around US$8 billion. In recent years, the Chinese market, which has relied less and less on Hollywood blockbusters, will become the only film market that is likely to grow next year. According to the Gower Street Company, China's box office will increase by 5% in 2024 compared with 2023, reaching US$7.9 billion, leaving only a very small gap with the North American market of US$8 billion. Of course, they also reminded that the release of new films in the Chinese market is quite unpredictable and highly variable. The above predictions are only based on the currently known market information.