This year's Oscars may be the least suspenseful in recent years. The probability of "Oppenheimer" winning the Best Picture award is said to be as high as 99.9%. The only thing left unknown is how many of the 13 nominations it can win. If it can win 8, it will become the biggest winner since 2009 - the last time it took home 8 statuettes was "Slumdog Millionaire".

Going back further, 2004's "The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King" was shortlisted for 11 awards and won 11; 1997's "The English Patient" was shortlisted for 12 awards and won 9; 1998's "Titanic" was shortlisted for 14 awards. , winning 11; these are truly "sweeps." Whether "Oppenheimer" can be among them may be the biggest attraction at the awards ceremony on the evening of March 10th, local time (the morning of March 11th, Beijing time).

Cillian Murphy in "Oppenheimer"

"Oppenheimer" is expected to win between 7 and 10 awards

In fact, Oscar sweeps have become increasingly rare in recent years. In 2017, "La La Land" received a record 14 nominations. It was originally very promising, but in the end it only won 6 Oscars. Not only did it lose to "Moonlight" in the Best Picture Award, but it also lost the Best Editing Award. , I didn’t get the best costume design either.

The reason may be that since 2009, the Oscars have expanded the number of best picture candidates from five to 10. Oscar judges are also mortals, and they always have a sense of compassion and don't want anyone to leave completely empty-handed. Before 2009, one film topped the list and four films failed. Many judges tried their best to find some consolation prizes for these four films. After 2009, one film reached the top and nine films failed. Many judges will also try their best to find some consolation prizes for these nine films. As a result, the award-winning situation is becoming more and more decentralized, and everyone is happy. Therefore, for the most top-notch works of the year, it becomes increasingly difficult to sweep them all.

Director Nolan (middle) on the set of "Oppenheimer"

Last year's "The World" won a total of 7 awards, which was the highest record since "Slumdog Millionaire". According to statistics, in the 1940s, the average Oscar for the best picture was 4.4 awards per film; in the 1950s, it was 6.6; in the 1960s, it was 5.9; in the 1970s, it was 5; in the 1980s, it was 5.7; and in the 1990s, it was 6.6. ; in the 2000s it was 5.5. Since the aforementioned restructuring, this number has dropped to 3.9. In addition to the Best Picture Award, it can also win three statuettes, which is considered above average.

Specifically, this year's "Oppenheimer" basically has no chance of winning in the three categories of supporting actress, costume design, makeup and hair design. There will be huge challenges in adapting scripts, sound effects, and art direction. In the categories of Best Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actor, Cinematography, Editing, and Soundtrack, it is already a 100% winner. Therefore, the total number of awards may fall between 7 and 10.

It’s not easy for Lily Gladstone to make history

Let’s look at the four actor awards that ordinary audiences are more concerned about. Theoretically, the judges for the Screen Actors Guild Awards are about 160,000 union members; while the judges for the Oscars are about 9,800 members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, of which actors only account for 14%, or more than a thousand people. That’s all. Although there is a lot of overlap between the two, these more than a thousand people alone cannot determine the Oscar award.

However, the fact is that the winners of the labor union awards in the past often get the statuette in the end. The reason is that I am afraid that the Oscar non-actor judges (ie 86% of voters) generally trust the professional standards of those actors and believe that the people they select must be outstanding; therefore, when voting, they will intentionally or unintentionally Copy the results of the Trade Union Awards. Not only for actor awards, but also for other award categories such as photography, editing, sound effects, etc., most non-professional judges will also copy the results of various union awards.

That's why there are so many so-called vane awards before the results of the Oscars are announced. Therefore, there are always very few truly big upsets in the results of the Oscars every year. In last year's session, it is said that Oscar prediction experts reviewed the results afterwards and found that the biggest upset was that "All Quiet on the Western Front" defeated "Babylon" to win the Best Art Direction Award.

Lily Gladstone in "Killers of the Flower Moon"

This year's Screen Actors Guild Awards went to Cillian Murphy for "Oppenheimer," Lily Gladstone for "Killers of the Flower Moon," Robert Downey Jr. for "Oppenheimer," and "Oppenheimer." Damien Joy Randolph of "Retention Alliance". If the Oscar statuettes are also won by these four people, it will be a continuation of the pattern of the past two years - the results of the Screen Actors Guild Awards and the Oscars are exactly the same, and two minority actors win every year.

At present, it seems that among the four, the one who needs God's blessings the most is probably Lily Gladstone. She faces strong challenges from Emma Stone of "Poor Things" and Sandra Wheeler of "The Fall", as well as veteran Annette, who has been nominated for an Oscar five times but has never won the award. ·Bening, it is said that she received a lot of sympathy votes. However, if he wins, Gladstone will become the first Native American to win the award in Oscar history, and its historical significance may also affect the judges' decision to some extent.

Some commentators pointed out that this year’s best actress competition is reminiscent of the 2019 one: the heroine of "Roma" Yarizha Aparicio is a native of Mexico, just like this year's Lily... Gladstone; Glenn Close of "The Good Wife" has been nominated for six Oscars before but returned empty-handed every time, just like Annette Bening this year; in the end, it was Olivier of "The Favorite" Ya Coleman is the proudest, and she was the last collaborator of Yorgos Lanthimos, the director of "Poor Thing" - will the good luck continue?

The screenplay award is confusing

This year's two screenplay awards are also worth watching. The first indicator of the screenplay award is naturally the results of the Writers Guild of America Awards. However, this year’s Writers Guild Awards were postponed to April 14 due to last year’s Hollywood strike, later than the Oscars. Therefore, for these nearly 10,000 Oscar judges, who to choose for Best Original Screenplay and Best Adapted Screenplay has lost the best reference and can only decide by themselves.

The five nominees for Best Original Screenplay are "The Music Master," "My Life," "May 12," "Stay in School," and "The Fall." Although "Judgment of the Fallen" won the Palme d'Or at Cannes, the Oscar judges are not the Cannes jury, so it's hard to say who will win. Moreover, if the other four films win awards, a lot of reasons can be deduced.

"Falling Judgment" stills

Among the five candidates for best adapted screenplay: "Barbie," "Zone of Interest," "American Novel," "Oppenheimer" and "Poor Thing," it initially seemed that "Oppenheimer" had the advantage. However, as the most popular movie in 2023, Greta Gerwig, the director and screenwriter of "Barbie", is quite lonely at this year's Oscars. She was not shortlisted for the Director Award, and she will definitely not be able to compete for the Best Picture Award. Benheimer", if the judges are willing to make up for this shortcoming, they may award the best adapted screenplay award to Gerwig. However, after winning the American Independent Spirit Award for Best Screenplay, "American Novel", which already won the British Academy Award for Best Adapted Screenplay, has now become the leader in this sector.

"Zone of Interest" wins best international film award

Let’s take a look at the Best International Film Award. This year, a total of 92 countries and regions submitted films, and 88 films were ultimately qualified, which was not as good as the 93 films last year and the year before. Among the five shortlisted films, the German-language film "Zone of Interest", which represents the UK, is the current frontrunner. The film received five nominations this year, including Best Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay, International Feature Film and Sound. There is a view that it is impossible to lose them all. Because in the history of the Oscars, works involving the Nazi Holocaust often receive great attention from the judges. In addition to the most familiar 1994 Best Picture winner "Schindler's List", there are also "Judgment at Nuremberg" (1961), "Cabaret" (1973), "Sophie's Choice" (1983), "The Pianist" (2004) and so on are also good proofs.

Stills from "Zone of Interest"

Therefore, since "Zone of Interest" has a low chance of winning Best Picture, Director, and Adapted Screenplay, there are only two categories left to break through: International Film and Sound Effects. In terms of the Best Sound Effects Award, although most of the winners in history have been blockbusters with special effects such as "Dune", "Top Gun 2" and "1917", there have also been small productions such as "Blast Drummer" and "Sound of Metal" that have won the award. precedent.

All viewers who have watched "Zone of Interest" will remember that the film's sound effects design is very unique. It has previously defeated "Oppenheimer" and won the Best Sound Effects Award at the 36th European Film Awards and the 77th British Film Awards. Academy Award for Best Sound. However, at the American Sound Effects Association Awards announced earlier this month, "Zone of Interest" was not shortlisted, and "Oppenheimer" came out on top. This award is indeed the biggest predictor of the Oscar for Best Sound Effects. In short, it is also worth paying attention to whether "Zone of Interest" can finally win the two statuettes for Best International Film and Best Sound Effects.

In terms of costume design and art direction, "Barbie" and "Poor Things" are going hand in hand. These two statuettes can almost be said to be the two most fiercely competitive and uncertain Oscars this year.

In the Best Animated Feature Film section, "Spider-Man: Across the Universe" has a clear lead, but "What Kind of Life Do You Want to Live" is not without a chance. Whether the 83-year-old Hayao Miyazaki can reach the top again is worth it. Ghibli fans are looking forward to it. And his compatriot Takashi Yamazaki is very likely to win the Best Visual Effects Award for "Godzilla-1.0", giving Asian filmmakers the opportunity to win the Oscar statuette for five consecutive years.