Data source: Lighthouse Professional Edition Officers/Cartography

On August 31, the three-month-long 2023 summer file officially came to an end. No matter in terms of total box office, number of viewers or film quality, the performance of this year's summer file has exceeded industry expectations. The performance of the summer file has also greatly improved the annual box office expectations. As of press time, the domestic movie box office in 2023 has exceeded 42.8 billion yuan, and the industry is accelerating its recovery.

The total box office exceeded the total of the past three years

According to data from the Beacon platform, as of 18:00 on August 31, the total box office of the 2023 summer season exceeded 20.6 billion yuan (including service fees), greatly surpassing the record of 17.778 billion yuan in 2019, setting a record high. At the same time, this year's summer box office also exceeds the sum of the summer box office for the three years from 2020 to 2022. From 2020 to 2022, the summer box office will be 3.62 billion yuan, 7.381 billion yuan, and 9.136 billion yuan, for a total of 20.137 billion yuan.

From June 21 to August 30, the summer box office exceeded 100 million yuan for 71 consecutive days, setting a new record for the number of days in a row. Among them, from August 4th to August 16th, it exceeded 200 million yuan for 13 consecutive days, and the popularity of summer vacation continued to rise. A total of 5 films with a box office of over 1 billion yuan were produced this summer, namely "The Missing Her" 3.522 billion yuan, "All or Nothing" 3.51 billion yuan, "Fengshen Part I" 2.476 billion yuan, and "In the Octagonal Cage" 2.203 billion yuan Yuan, "Thirty Thousand Miles from Chang'an" 1.798 billion Yuan.

In terms of the number of movie viewers, as of 18:00 on August 31, the number of movie viewers (total number of votes issued) in the summer file this year reached 503 million, slightly exceeding the 502 million in the summer file in 2019, setting a new high in the summer file. The number of movie viewers in the summer this year also exceeds the sum of the number of movie viewers in 2021 (203 million) and 2022 (234 million). In recent years, with the rapid growth of the number of theaters, the attendance rate of domestic theaters has continued to decline. Especially during the epidemic, in the summer of 2021, the attendance rate of domestic theaters was as low as 5.4%. This year, the attendance rate of summer stalls has rebounded sharply to 12%, which is basically the same as that in 2019.

However, the average fare for the summer holidays this year is significantly higher than in previous years. As of August 30, the average ticket price for the 2023 summer vacation is 40.85 yuan, which is also a record high. The average ticket price is 5 yuan higher than the 35.39 yuan in 2019.

The annual box office exceeded 42.8 billion yuan

The strong performance of the summer file has raised the box office expectations for the whole year. As of 18:00 on August 31, the cumulative national box office in 2023 has reached 42.8 billion yuan, accounting for about 67% of 2019; the cumulative number of movie viewers exceeded 1 billion, exceeding the 712 million people in 2022. As of now, in 2023, a total of 20 films have a box office of more than 500 million yuan, of which 9 have a box office of more than 1 billion yuan, and 6 have a box office of more than 2 billion yuan.

Among the top ten films at the box office, 3 were produced during the Spring Festival, namely "Man Jianghong" 4.544 billion yuan, "The Wandering Earth 2" 4.029 billion yuan, and "Bear Infested: Stay with Me "Bear Core"" 1.495 billion yuan; 5 were produced in summer; the remaining "Unfamiliar Life" and "Fast and Furious 10" were produced in May 1st and other schedules respectively. Domestic films performed particularly well. Among the top 10 films at the box office, only one is an imported film. In addition, compared with previous years, the box office distribution of top films this year is also more balanced.

As the film market continues to recover, the performance of major A-share film and television theater companies has also recovered significantly. The recently disclosed semi-annual report shows that in the first half of the year, the revenue and net profit of film and television theater companies both increased significantly. In the first half of 2023, Wanda Films achieved operating income of 6.869 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 39.1%; achieved a net profit of 423 million yuan, turning losses into profits year-on-year.

In addition, Chinese films, which have won a large number of blockbuster films this year, achieved an operating income of 2.857 billion yuan in the first half of the year, an increase of 87.95% year-on-year; a net profit of 360 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1685%. Hengdian Film and Television achieved operating income of 1.172 billion yuan in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 40.69%; achieved a net profit of 113 million yuan, turning losses into profits year-on-year. In the first half of the year, Jinyi Film and Television achieved revenue of 658 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 38.53%; achieved a net profit of 24 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 112%. In the first half of the year, Shanghai Film’s revenue was 372 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 66.47%; its net profit was 65.84 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 140.5%.

Happy Blue Ocean’s revenue in the first half of the year was 459 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 62.8%; its net profit loss was 11.65 million yuan, a substantial reduction in losses from the same period last year. Xingfu Lanhai said that the net profit of the company's holding subsidiary Dinv Media in the first half of the year was -20.767 million yuan, which had a greater impact on the company's performance. Bona Pictures' operating income in the first half of the year was 850 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 42.3%; the net profit loss was 265 million yuan, turning from profit to loss. However, the main reason for Bona Pictures' revenue decline in the first half of the year was the decline in film investment business. In the first half of this year, the volume of films invested by Bona Films was not as high as last year's "Shuimen Bridge of Changjin Lake", which resulted in a decrease in the film's box office revenue. In the first half of the year, the company's cinema business achieved an operating income of 600 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 74.64%.

The National Day file is worth looking forward to

After the summer holiday, in the remaining four months of this year, there are still key periods such as the Mid-Autumn Festival, National Day and the end of the year.

According to data from the Lighthouse platform, as of August 31, 56 films have been scheduled for September to December, and the number of scheduled films will continue to increase in the future, and there is still a lot of room for improvement in the box office throughout the year. Recently, many brokerages have made forecasts for the next stage of box office and the full-year box office in research reports.

The Galaxy Securities Research Report believes that the box office continued to recover significantly in the first half of the year, and there are sufficient high-quality films in the second half of the year. More than 100 films have been scheduled. At the same time, AIGC has a significant impact on the film and television theater chain, which is specifically reflected in the cost reduction and efficiency increase on the supply side, and the comprehensive improvement of the production efficiency of film production from planning, production, to publicity and distribution.

Guohai Securities research report stated that looking forward to the National Day holiday and the whole year, many blockbuster films are waiting to be released, and the full-year box office forecast has been raised. It is predicted that the annual box office in 2023 will be 57.14 billion yuan (conservative), 58.94 billion yuan (neutral), and 60.76 billion yuan (optimistic), basically recovering to 89.1% (conservative)/91.9% (neutral)/94.7% of 2019 (optimism).

Kaiyuan Securities Research Report believes that there are currently films such as "Predecessor 4: Early Marriage", "Sturdy as a Rock", "I am Nezha 2: The Hero Returns" and other films that have been scheduled for National Day, covering topics such as love, criminal investigation suspense, animation, and war , there are more types of National Day movies than in the past few years. Based on the increase in people's willingness to watch movies driven by high-quality domestic films in the summer, and with the fact that more films may be scheduled for the National Day, the probability of the National Day box office exceeding expectations is also increasing.

The Kaiyuan Securities research report stated that summer movies have further verified and strengthened the positive correlation between box office and word-of-mouth, and may help domestic movies continue to improve their quality, which is expected to improve the stability of the box office; The increase in the production rate superimposes that the industry as a whole has passed the period of rapid growth in the number of screens and capital expenditures, which may drive the continuous increase in the net interest rate of leading movie theater companies, and their net profit is more flexible with the growth of the box office.